Rising Temperature and the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Foot and Mouth Disease of Livestock in Mongolia

Student Researchers

Anna Cestari '23

Will Mun '23

Vyvy Vu '23

Faculty Mentors

Dr. Iyabo Obasanjo and Erica Garroutte

Project Description

Climate change is having cascading effects on the environment, impacting both animal and human health, as well as overall wellbeing. Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), a highly contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, has led to significant socio-economic consequences for nomadic pastoralist communities, which are becoming increasingly vulnerable to environmental degradation and climate change. FMD outbreaks are occurring more frequently in Mongolia, and the effects of climate change—such as more frequent droughts, rising temperatures, and altered snowfall patterns—are becoming increasingly evident.

In this study, we employed spatiotemporal mapping and regression analyses to examine trends and associations between climate variables and FMD outbreaks across Mongolia from 2010 to 2020. We found that the number of days with temperatures exceeding 80°F in a given year was associated with an increased likelihood of FMD outbreaks at the provincial level. However, no other climate variables showed significant associations with FMD outbreaks at this scale.

Given the projected rise in temperatures across Mongolia, further investigation is needed to explore the link between warming temperatures and FMD outbreaks. This will be crucial in mitigating the cascading impacts of FMD on nomadic herding communities. Approaches to help herders reduce the impact of increasing hot days on FMD transmission should be developed, and governments in countries with nomadic pastoralist populations should implement climate adaptation policies for these communities.

This research led to a student-led publication: PubMed Link.

Project ID - Format

21-018-21 - CRP Semester

21-018-22 - CRP Semester

21-018-23 - CRP Semester