搬运工：1819年的恐慌
搬运工：1819年的恐慌
经济学教授讨论了美国第一次现代经济衰退及其对今天的教训。
辛迪·贝克绘图。
奥尔曼的研究兴趣包括经济学作为一门学科的发展，他注意到1819年的恐慌不断出现在他的阅读材料中。 “Still, I couldn’t find much information about it,” he said. “The more I looked, the less I found.”
他找到的信息往往是不完整的。 他决定集中精力对付弗吉尼亚。 他在里士满花了几个月的时间，从19世纪10年代和20年代的手写文件中寻找经济指标。 他收集的数据包括营业执照、扶贫支出和农业产出。
“I think it is fair to call the events of the period the first modern business cycle,” Haulman said. 促成这一趋势的因素包括1812年的战争，以及由军事主角发起的封锁，这些封锁迫使美国国内制造业出现好转。 与此同时，美国第一银行于1811年停止运营，随后各州银行的扩张帮助创造了过剩的信贷。 “After the War of 1812 ends for us, and the Napoleonic wars end in Europe, Britain and the continent are recovering, and the demand for American grain escalates,” he explained. That demand triggered speculation in western lands as people benefitting from the “boom” believed agricultural prices would continue to rise, he said.
他们没有。 国外市场萎缩了。 土地被高估了。 抵押贷款持有者发现他们的资源紧张。 银行收紧了信贷。
“If you go back and look at every panic and every business cycle, the story is the same,” Haulman said. “Every generation that has been in a boom cycle has believed it would go on forever.”
During a videotaped interview, Haulman discussed his book 弗吉尼亚和1819年的恐慌 as well as speculated upon lessons for the current financial crisis. 他对最近的刺激计划的感觉是，鉴于几个月来经济方面的坏消息影响了美国公民的心理构成，这可能还不够。 他认为政府应该考虑将陷入困境的银行国有化。 “It also will be interesting to see how we deal with all of the liquidity and the federal debt that’s being created,” he said. “That will be as interesting as how we are dealing with things on the down side.”